Thin Value Spots Poker Props May Overlook (part 2)
Squeezing extra profits out of thin value situations is obviously advanced strategy. Those who become decent at exploiting the thin value are wining players, who aim to get even more out of the time they spend at the tables. While poker props aren’t all such advanced players, it is safe to assume that they are generally long term winners as well. If you’re a poker prop, fine-tuning your thin-value sensor will offer you more satisfaction. As said in one of our previous articles, not taking advantage of the thin value won’t destroy your win rate. Taking full advantage of it won’t result in fabulous added profits either. It’s just a small part of the big picture, one that you should nonetheless aim to turn to your advantage as much as possible.
Besides the situations brought up in our previous thin value article, there are a few other opportunities: when your hand is close to the top of your weak made hand range, that’s usually another thin-value spot. You need to understand that just because you have a hand like that, you shouldn’t push for the thin value. There’s an entire set of circumstances that need to click in order for the thin value to surface, as you’ll see from the example below.
You’re in a $1/$2 NL Holdem game, with stacks of $200. You’re in the cut-off and you raise $6 looking to take advantage of your position with a 10d, 8d. The button makes the call and the blinds fold. The flop falls J,8,3 rainbow and you’re stuck with a measly middle pair. A continuation bet is in order and you fire out a $8 one which is called by your opponent. The turn falls 3d and both of you check. The 2h on the river sets up the thin value situation.
The fact that you only checked the turn gives away weakness, therefore, your opponent will be tempted to believe you’re bluffing when you fire out that thin value bet on the river. He will call you with a pair of 8s and a weaker kicker than yours pretty much all the time. If he has a gutshot that failed to fill up but managed to make a pair, he will call you again.
Scare cards are great thin-value creators, but only against thinking opponents. A skilled opponent will assume that you bluff such scare-cards a high percentage of the time, which means he will adjust his calling range, thus creating thin value for the savvy poker prop.